Improving planning maturity and capacity decision making
Situation
Regulated manufacturing environments faced increasing complexity in demand forecasting, inventory positioning and long-term capacity planning. Manufacturing lead times and batch economics created risks of both expiry and constrained supply, while forecasting maturity varied significantly between markets. Some regions provided structured long-range outlooks, whereas others struggled to forecast even the next month reliably.
Challenge
Traditional forecasting and S&OP approaches struggled to connect commercial ambitions, operational feasibility and strategic investment decisions into one integrated decision-making process. In addition, detailed forecasting expectations often exceeded realistic forecasting maturity. Forecasting accuracy naturally decreases as granularity increases. Generating reliable annual demand expectations at aggregated product-family level is fundamentally different from forecasting detailed daily demand patterns at SKU, country or regional level.
Approach
Planning maturity initiatives focused on creating more realistic and scalable forecasting structures. One important step was the introduction of a pyramid forecasting model across product families, allergens and countries. The underlying principle was that aggregated forecasts are generally more reliable than highly granular forecasts. Similar to weather forecasting, predicting average monthly temperatures is significantly more reliable than forecasting daily temperatures per zipcode a year in advance. This forecasting structure helped align commercial input quality with operational planning realities and reduced unnecessary planning noise. Subsequent initiatives introduced a continuous planning and learning cycle inspired by the Deming PDCA methodology:
- Generate unconstrained commercial demand forecasts
- Assess operational feasibility through supply planning
- Align with senior management on constraints, priorities and strategic trade-offs
- Execute and monitor operational performance
- Review outcomes and improve assumptions for the next planning cycle
Scenario-based capacity assessments were developed for pipeline and clinical-trial-driven demand uncertainty, including risk-based evaluation of future manufacturing expansion decisions. A key contribution was the development of integrated planning models for a newly launched product simultaneously supporting commercial supply and clinical trial demand. These analyses enabled leadership to postpone major capacity investment decisions by 12–18 months while awaiting additional clinical evidence and improved market visibility.
Result
While governance structures evolved over time with changing organizational priorities, the initiatives improved cross-functional understanding of demand, supply and capacity dynamics and supported more risk-aware operational and strategic decision making. The work also strengthened organizational awareness that planning maturity is not a one-time implementation, but an ongoing capability requiring continuous alignment between commercial, operational and executive stakeholders.
Leadership Dimension
Focused on connecting functions with different planning maturity levels, translating operational complexity into management discussions, and creating practical decision-support mechanisms rather than theoretical process compliance.